Wagering on UFOs gains traction as prediction markets capitalize on alien hype

Fresh momentum has hit betting platforms following comments regarding Donald Trump and the potential release of classified documents concerning non-human intelligence. Trading activity on Kalshi and Polymarket has spiked, hitting respective volumes of $6.7 million and $5.8 million. Despite the frenzy, participants generally doubt the existence of extraterrestrials, with odds indicating a probability below 20% that the United States possesses proof of such beings.

Modern society has long been captivated by the quest to find biological entities beyond Earth, a fascination evidenced by major science fiction productions like Planet of the Apes and War of the Worlds.

Evidence for extraterrestrials stays elusive, yet public enthusiasm persists

Nevertheless, confirmation of life from other worlds appears tantalizingly close, at least according to betting exchanges that are eager to list contracts regarding Donald Trump's directive to unseal records pertaining to UFOs, aliens, and various aerial anomalies.

Trump becomes the second top-tier government figure to ignite debate over non-terrestrial beings, following Barack Obama, who jokingly admitted on a podcast that he accepts the possibility of aliens, despite never having witnessed them firsthand.

Betting sites have joined the fray, with Kalshi launching a specific contract that questions participants if the American government will verify the reality of extraterrestrial life prior to 2027.

Based on daily activity on the site as of February 23, the probability of such a confirmation stands near 20%. This betting option isn't entirely new; rather, it has received a fresh boost following the latest statement from Trump.

Kalshi has seen volume hit $6.7 million, a significant sum, yet bettors have hesitated to get too carried away regarding the reality of alien biology, much less the idea of intergalactic travelers visiting our planet.

In recent months, the odds regarding extraterrestrial existence have oscillated within the 10% to 20% range. Critics note that Trump's declaration aligns suspiciously well with various internal challenges currently plaguing his leadership.

The US Supreme Court recently ruled the President's import duties illegal, while the nation is mobilizing its armed forces for what looks like a looming conflict with Iran (a separate high-volume betting topic). Furthermore, the Epstein documents and a struggling economy keep eroding public confidence and the administration's standing.

Participants on Polymarket join the speculation

In any case, Polymarket has also introduced a wager titled: "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?"

This contract has drawn in $5.8 million in bets, yet users on this platform tend to be more doubtful about the US providing conclusive evidence of extraterrestrials, with volume-weighted odds sitting at just 14%.

Even should the government publish documents hinting at non-human life, betting platforms might decline to settle the contracts, contending that lacking a physical biological sample, such "evidence" falls short of actual confirmation.

Obama did state that Area 51 housed no flying saucers, yet taking him at his word demands a significant level of trust for certain individuals.